WESTERN CONFERENCE

2-San Antonio Spurs vs 5-Memphis Grizzlies

Robd: This is a tough one to predict. Do you go with the bigger, tougher defensive-minded team who plays to its strengths inside, knows its limits, and is devoid of the traditional superstar? Or do you go with the battle-tested veteran team who has been running the same system for 15 years, anchored by the greatest PF of all time and arguably the best backcourt of the last decade? The Spurs are more complete and can adapt depend on who is hitting their shots on the day. The Grizzlies are a bit more 1-dimensional – if Z-Bo and Gasol aren’t dominating inside I’m not sure they can find enough points.

My gut is telling me Memphis, but that’s because I always root for the underdog. The Spurs are the classier unit. I pick them only if Tony Parker is the best player in the series. He has to be if they’re in with a shot, because Mike Conley has grown leaps and bounds this postseason. If he can’t fire the Grizz will bully their way to victory. Either way it’s going to be seriously fun to watch. Spurs in 7.

DJ Leon Smith: My original submission for the Spurs-Grizzlies Western Conference Finals matchup was unfortunately rejected by the NBAMate Editors as it simply said: “Flipped a coin. Spurs in 7”. This series really is that close though. This will be the most unsexiest sexy matchup (i.e. casual fans will hate it, die-hards will salivate) we’ll see in this season’s playoffs. The great thing about both San Antonio and Memphis is they don’t beat themselves – expect no Warriors-style meltdowns here.

After six bruising games against Andrew Bogut, matching up against DPOY Marc Gasol won’t be as tough as it could have been for Tim Duncan, and while the Conley/Allen backcourt has improved significantly (mainly Conley), it’s still no match for the Parker/Ginobili (and rising star Kawhi Leonard) perimeter onslaught the Spurs can throw at their opposition. Just hope whoever wins doesn’t end up spending everything in their tank getting to the Finals and is running on fumes against the Heat or Pacers. Spurs in 7.

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Clearly, the ankle caught up with him as the series wore on but overall his performance in these playoffs has been nothing short of remarkable. He showed the basketball world what we already knew – when healthy, Andrew Bogut is a game-changer.

With a long offseason ahead to rest up and get right, I’m confident that next season will be his best yet.

Here’s a look back at his memorable playoff run.

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A weekly wrap of the things you should know in basketball.

* Kevin Durant wearing a Seattle Supersonics hat?

* SB Nation’s Tom Ziller hoses down this nonsense about Kevin Durant coming up short. Geez, there’s some knobs out there.

* According to the experts Andrew Wiggins is the next can’t miss superstar coming down the pike. He just committed to Kansas but he’ll be one-and-done and heading for the NBA in the 2014 draft. Expect to see a handful of teams pull a full-on tank job next season to try and get their hands on him (and rightfully so). Here’s some footage and analysis of Wiggins.

* Dwayne Wade wearing a slim-fitting suit with funny short pants. Ridiculous.

* Phil Jackson posted a picture of all 13 of his championship rings on Twitter.

* Tayshaun Prince and Norris Cole with two big-time dunks.

* Some interesting new crunch-time facts about Kobe Bryant.

* Tracy McGrady owned garbage time in Game 5 against the Warriors. Seeing him in a Spurs jersey is just wrong.

* An E:60 special on Chris Bosh.

* Shaquille O’Neal sucks on TNT.

Andrew Bogut does it again

Another standout performance from Bogut (+17 plus-minus), but his defense in particular was incredible. He dominated the boards again (18 rebounds), kept the Spurs out of the paint – usually their bread and butter – and put the clamps on Timmy D.

Bogut sat for most of the first half with foul trouble and Duncan took advantage with 14 points, but he returned to play 22 minutes in the second half and overtime and during that span Duncan went 2-12 for just 5 points at -25 plus-minus. He shut down the Hall of Famer.

One play in particular highlighted Bogut’s importance. With just over a minute to go in regulation and the Spurs up by two, Duncan isolated in the post against Bogut and went to his patented drop-step move, Bogut blocked it, Duncan then regathered and attempted a second shot which Bogut contested, he missed and Bogut grabbed the board and in the next possession Jarrett Jack hit the game tying jumper. As usual Jack gets the headlines for scoring the bucket, but it was Bogut who did the heavy lifting in a critical possession.

The accolades aren’t always there, but for me it’s cut and dried – Andrew Bogut’s defense is the key reason why the Golden State Warriors are only two wins away from reaching the Western Conference Finals (crazy!!). With all due respect to Steph Curry – he’s a phenomenal player – take Bogut off this team (leaving Ezeli and Biedrins to man the middle) and they’re not even here; they capitulate on the inside and get smoked by Denver in the first round.

Hubie Brown said it best in the dying minutes of the game: “You gotta like him alright, mainly because they need him. His presence has changed the whole personality of this game.” Hubie, as usual you nailed it.

While we’re on the Warriors, how impressive has the rookie Harrison Barnes been? He’s only 20 years old but he already possesses a man’s game – he can shoot, defend, jump out of the gym, play in the post and he has also shown that he can elevate his game on the biggest stage. That combination at this age is rare. He’s special.

In Curry, Thompson and Barnes the Warriors have potentially locked down the 1/2/3 positions for the next decade. Their present and future is very bright.

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The LeBron Rules

For those too young to remember, the Bad Boy Pistons of the late eighties developed a secret yet blatantly obvious set of rules when playing against Jordan and the Bulls. The rules were simple: put Jordan on his ass every time he tries to drive the lane, and if you foul him, make sure you foul the hell out of him. The rules were implemented to exploit the Pistons’ strengths –  toughness, defense, no-frills basketball – to make up for the fact the Bulls had superior talent and the best player in the league.

Sound familiar? Replace “Pistons” with “Bulls” (ironically) and “Bulls” with “Heat” and you have the series you are watching today. It’s not a perfect replica mind you, not only because this Bulls team could never dream of getting away with the cheap shots that Laimbeer, Mahorn and Rodman did, but also because that Pistons team was a legit title threat.  Also, the Jordan Rules actually worked for a couple of seasons. The LeBron Rules? Not so much.

Chicago is trying their best to get into LeBron’s head and throw him off his game, and taking cheap shots in the process. I watched game 3 and for the record I do think there was a bit of superstar bias from the refs, but that is not what cost the Bulls the game. The Heat won because of composure down the stretch, and because of Chris Bosh playing one of his best playoff games I’ve ever seen. How strange, that with all the Bulls size and toughness, they couldn’t keep the Heat’s often-perceived “soft” power forward off the boards. It’s not easy to steal the spotlight from LeBron James these days, but in Game 3 Chris Bosh certainly did it: 20 points, 19 boards, 4 assists and 2 blocks. The question remains – will the Bulls try these tactics again? For their sake, I hope they don’t bother.

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One of the best writers in the business, Kelly Dwyer from the Yahoo! Sports’ blog, Ball Don’t Lie, penned a great article today on Andrew Bogut. It’s well worth a read. Here’s a snippet:

Andrew Bogut has been a revelation during this year’s postseason. Though he looked to be his old, unfortunately gimpy self in Golden State’s playoff-initiating Game 1 loss to the Denver Nuggets nearly three weeks ago, Bogut has sprung back to approximate the sort of all-around terror that we grew to know and love during his time as a Milwaukee Buck. And while that may seem like faint praise, understand that a healthy Buck Bogut meant the world as an angle-eliminating defensive mastermind that could finish around the rim and make the extra pass.”

A weekly wrap of the things you should know in basketball.

* Steph Curry’s one-legged three pointer. Wow!

* Two wicked dunks – Iman Shumpert and Kevin Durant.

* Gregg Popovich and sideline interviews are the best (1 and 2).

* Joe Ingles arrives for the Euroleague Final Four.

* LeBron James put on a passing clinic in Game 2 against the Bulls.

* SB Nation - ‘Derrick Rose and the Bulls’ history of letting players break themselves’. Spot on.

* Spike Lee videobombs Reggie Miller.

* David Stern tries the slick back.

* Z-Bo celebrates his ejection in Game 6 of the Clippers series. Love it!

* Steph Curry signed a four-year, $44 million extension with the Warriors last offseason. Whoops.

* Game winners – Kevin Durant and Manu Ginobili.

* A superbly written piece on the soulless Brooklyn Nets.

* In my Playoff Diary entry earlier in the week I said that big men still play a critical role in deciding the outcome of playoff basketball, and Grantland’s Zach Lowe agrees. One of his best lines: “A big guy who can actually play both ends of the floor at a B-plus level is the most valuable non-superstar commodity in the league.”

The meltdown everyone saw coming… except him

Everyone knew it was coming. If there was ever a time where a late-game meltdown was a statistical probability, it was Game 1 of the Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs series. The Warriors are young and streaky, the Spurs are old and unflappable. Plus we’d seen it in the Warriors last game against the Denver Nuggets.

We’re pretty sure Mark Jackson was watching that game as well. He was coaching it. So why did he do nothing to prepare his team for what was about to happen? In fact, you could (and should) argue he put them in the position to fail.

Andrew Bogut on the bench during the Spurs fourth quarter run, allowing them to attack the rim at will? Yep, that happened. Richard Jefferson (of all people) on the court during crunch time? That happened. Non-stop iso-ball for Jarrett Jack? Also happened (and always happens down the stretch for Golden State, for whatever reason. Oh wait that’s right, the reason is poor head coaching.)

Yes, it is surprising that the Warriors have got this far, which makes it near impossible for the team to fire Jackson any time soon – teams rarely fire head coaches of teams that seemingly overachieve, even if they should and there’s clearly better options available. When the best fourth-quarter offensive option for the opposition is “get the Warriors to inbound the ball”, something is seriously wrong with the guy on the sideline.

(FUN FACT: Before Game 1 of the Warriors-Spurs series, teams with a 16-point lead with four minutes to go in a playoff game were 392-0.)

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“It’s a point guard’s league”. Really?

In today’s NBA the point guard (or perimeter star) typically has the run of the show and gets all the accolades (ahem, Steph Curry), but who really dictates the outcome of a playoff series?

History tells us this – unless you’ve got a game-changing superstar wing player on your team, like a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Kobe Bryant (and going back further, Michael Jordan), you better have an elite big man patrolling the paint or you ain’t doin’ nothin’.

Let’s take a look at the 2013 playoffs and the teams that have advanced to the second round. Out of the eight teams that remain, two have the otherworldly wings (MIA – LeBron; OKC – Durant), but the other six have the best of the best in terms of big men (MEM – Gasol; GSW – Bogut; SAS – Duncan; NYK – Chandler; IND – Hibbert; CHI – Noah). And it’s no coincidence that all six of these guys are probably the best defenders at the center position (obviously Howard is missing, but he was pretty rank this year).

It’s not hard to connect the dots. For all the rule changes, the preference for a quicker pace and small ball, one thing is constant – if you don’t have that superstar (and sometimes, even if you do) you need a bad arsed big dude protecting the paint to have any real chance of playoff success. And that will never change.

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