The return of NBA basketball is fantastic news for all concerned, but there’s a casualty here; Patty Mills.
For the short term, the reasoning behind his move to China was sound. The NBA lockout threatened to wipe out the season, the Chinese league offered a higher standard of competition, and he could earn over a million bucks for a mere four months of work. But, as I mentioned to Robd when the news came down, it was a huge risk for Patty and one that could bite him in the arse if basketball resumed (which was still a possibility at the time).
Prior to the lockout Patty was tendered a qualifying offer by Portland making him a restricted free agent (the $1,171,494 qualifying offer does not guarantee he will remain with the Blazers, but allows the Blazers to retain his rights and match offers from other teams). But his prospects in Portland aren’t good. They traded for Raymond Felton, drafted Nolan Smith and have two other young point guards (Williams and Johnson) on the roster. They’re stacked at his position and it was probably time for Patty to move on.
And the timing was perfect for this to occur. Besides Patty, the best available point guards in free agency are: Delonte West, Jose Barea, Rodney Stuckey, Mario Chalmers, TJ Ford, Earl Watson and Ronnie Price. And that’s it.
Now, compare that with the available point guards in next year’s 2012 free agency: Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Kirk Hinrich, Raymond Felton, Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Aaron Brooks, Goran Dragic and all the point guards in the 2009 draft class (more on that later). Having locked himself in to the Chinese league season, Patty now joins this group. Good luck with that.
With sparse competition in this year’s free agency Patty was a prime candidate to be ‘overpaid’ so to speak (yes, the new CBA still gives teams plenty of opportunities to hand out bad contracts). Very few teams have a quality back-up point guard, a position of demand, and Patty has proven that he could grow into that role and be successful. I don’t think I am overstating things here, but I think it’s reasonable to suggest that at a minimum Patty could have landed a deal in the two-year $4 million range (which he deserves mind you). So that could be the cost in the short term.
And I hate to pile on, but it’s hard not to draw a comparison with his decision to enter the 2009 draft after only two years of college at Saint Mary’s. It was an odd decision considering that there was an unusually large number of point guard prospects that year, and Patty himself was on the bubble. The following guys were selected in the first round: Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor, Darren Collison, Rodrigue Beaubois and Toney Douglas. That’s a whopping TWELVE point guards selected in the first round of the draft, which is unheard of.
To put that in perspective, only four point guards (Wall, Bledsoe, Bradley and Elliot Williams (by Portland)) were selected in the first round the following year in 2010. And let’s be honest, only Wall was worthy of the selection.
His decision to enter the 2009 draft (where he was selected 55th overall) most likely cost him a first round selection in 2010 had he stayed another year in college, and with that, the guaranteed contract and higher salary that comes with it. It also jeopardised his place in the NBA, because after suffering an injury during a summer league practice he had to fight like hell just to earn a place on the roster.
I am trying hard not to be too critical here because we’re a big supporter of Patty, but one has to question his decision-making or the advice he is receiving.
At worst, the decision to play in China could cost him millions in earnings. Also, by removing his name from NBA circles and risking injury playing a heavy schedule in China, it could also threaten his NBA future.
Or, as a best case scenario, he could tear it up in China (he’s made a good start), be signed by an NBA team in March when the contract runs out, prove his worth in the playoffs and be rewarded with a big deal in 2012.
Let’s hope it’s the latter.
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vs San Antonio - Game 6 (L) 17/05/13
70%
Andrew Bogut (GSW)
Patrick Mills (SAS)
Aron Banyes (SAS)
4 Comments until now.
Damn you make it seem grim for Patty. I had never thought about his draft year till now but damn if only he had of held on for that little bit longer.
IT’S BALL TIME!!!!!
Well put, I think as far as career decision-making goes, this is pretty accurate. One thing I might add is; I’m a big Patty fan, probably like everyone else here, but in hindsight it’s pretty clear that he was overrated coming out of the Beijing Olympics. He did perform well, and He did have some great moments at SMC. But as a genuine NBA prospect his game was very underdeveloped. His best attributes were his quickness, his shot, natural sporty sense, and his character. But his style was so ‘Australian’, great Xs and 0s but no real handle or iso 1 on 1 game beyond a first step. Doesn’t matter how quick you are end to end, there is no place in the NBA for guards who can’t get by their man off the dribble, get into the lane, dish or finish. And he showed that in many of his games with Portland, underdeveloped ballhandling skills, no crossover or hesitation moves, no swag. That’s just not an NBA point guard. The coaching staff would’ve known this about him straight away, that he wasn’t a serious PG prospect, but they would’ve loved his quickness, shot, and character. And he would’ve learned that pretty quickly, that he would have to change and develop his style. He definitely had a lot more in the toolbox at the world champs after his first season in 2010, I reckon he copped a lot of moves from Brandon Roy, who is not the fastest player in the NBA but has a whole bunch of great change-of-pace moves to make plays or get his own shot. You can see it pretty clearly in his game now, he was often the go-to iso guy for melbourne, although Ubaka was still a better ballhandler.
So, I guess my point is, if I even have one, I’m not so sure that he was genuinely NBA ready to begin with, and sitting for the majority of the first season was probably tough but would’ve shown him a lot of the areas he had deficits in. The second season was great and he showed he can compete at that level. So now that his game is more developed and in the NBA ballpark, he’s got a chance to dominate in China and really cement his skill set, build confidence going into the London Olympics, and then make his case as being a genuinely NBA ready PG. It’s a bit of a roundabout way of getting to where he needs to be, but it has the chance to workout in his favour and may well be the way that cements in his career in a way it might otherwise not have been. And right now, he’s getting proper #paid, which is great. I trust he’ll make the most of his circumstances, he always has in the past.
Watch Rubio this year whether good or bad he’ll tell the tale of waiting. Even if he is younger and bounds beyond Patty in terms of talent.
I might have called Patty unlucky not to get a 11-12 roster spot in the NBA this year somewhere, but now I unfortunately have to call him/his management just plain ignorant.
Watching Patty for the few weeks he was here in the NBL I couldn’t help but think he was not helping his prospects at all.
-He was playing 2 a lot of the time
-He was not bringing the ball up the court until the end of the game
-His outside shot (which is questionable at best) was what I could only describe as streaky.
Unrelated (but still Aussies in the NBA related) – Dime magazine makes a list of top 10 centres in the NBA, leaves off Bogut. Crazy. At least it started a ripple in the comments section.
http://dimemag.com/2011/12/top-10-nba-centers-in-the-game-today/4/
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