Los Angeles vs Utah
Who will win: Los Angeles in 5. Utah is a tough physical team, and last year I had them as the second best team out West in the playoffs (apart from LA). While their personnel is the same, they are a shadow of that Jazz team that took the Lakers to six games. Carlos Boozer is still feeling his way around, Okur isn’t healthy, Korver isn’t shooting like he was last year, and Kirilenko continues to mysteriously get worse every season. Contrast that to the Lakers who have been cruising for most of the last month, and have managed to incorporate Bynum as seamlessly as you could imagine.
Why you should care: Because you get to see Kobe Bryant in the playoffs, and if last year was any indication, this is one of the rarer treats in basketball. Look for Kobe to raise his game and prove why he is still the best in the business.
The X-Factor: Carlos Boozer. Is he 100%? Can he get back to his best and start bullying the Lakers frontline? Boozer was an absolute handful for LA last year, and unless he can rekindle that form, the Jazz will be steamrolled. Even if he was 100%, I still couldn’t see Utah winning this series.

Denver vs New Orleans
Who will win: Denver in 7. I’m not 100% sold on Denver being the clear #2 seed in the West. On paper they don’t impress me anymore than the Rockets or the Blazers or the Hornets for that matter. What convinces me they’ll get over the line is nothing more than sheer desperation to avoid first-round failure again – and more importantly, their own belief that having Chauncey lays rest to the ghosts of playoff past. Carmelo has to establish himself as The Man in this series, because if he doesn’t, Chris Paul will, and the Nuggets will lose.
Why you should care: Just an incredible amount riding on this series for the Nuggets. There is a King Kong-sized monkey on their back right now, and if they win this series, the confidence that will build might be enough to push them through whatever roadblock presents itself in the second round.
The X-Factor: Tyson Chandler. The dude is not healthy, he can barely dunk at the moment. Tyson needs to get back to his best if the Hornets are going to steal this one. They need him for his defense and energy, and Chris Paul needs him to finish the countless alley-oops you know he wants to throw (not for the highlight reels, because this was a big source of easy points for the Hornets last season).

San Antonio vs Dallas
Who will win: Dallas in 6. They are riding pretty high on momentum and emotion at the moment. Dirk is in killer form and Jason Terry is about to be named 6th Man of the Year. The Spurs are hobbling and they know it. What’s more, the Mavs are one of the few teams who have not been historically bullied by the Spurs in the playoffs. In what is still one of the most forgotten yet amazing playoff victories ever, the Mavs beat the Spurs in game 7 of the ‘06 Conference Semi-Finals IN San Antonio. Who does that? Name me a team in the last decade who’s beaten the Spurs in a game 7, let alone one in San Antonio. Coming up blank? The Mavs are not afraid of the Spurs, and will pounce on this severely wounded animal.
Why you should care: Because I seriously think the Mavs are a dark horse in these playoffs. I seriously think they could end up playing the Lakers in the Conference Finals, and they would avoid playing Houston/Portland while getting there. I just get the feeling that veterans like Dirk and Kidd know their time is almost up, and I think you’ll see them playing with that desperation throughout the series.
The X-Factor: Roger Mason. Kinda obvious. How successfully can he fill Ginobili’s shoes? Mason has made a bunch of big plays in big games all season long – can he do it consistently across an entire playoff series? I very much doubt it. But if anyone can instill belief in their role-players, it’s Coach Pop and Timmy D.

Portland vs Houston
Who will win: Portland in 7. This has to be the closest series to call out of any in the first round. The Blazers have everything going for them – everyone is playing well, everyone is healthy, they have home-court, and in somewhat of a counter-argument to their inexperience, “they’re too dumb to know otherwise” (I keep hearing people say that on ESPN over here). On the other hand, Houston has the experience, the better interior scorers, the better defenders, and a game-breaker in Artest that you have to believe is as well-equipped as anyone to stop Brandon Roy. To me this is the most intriguing matchup in the first round, and I think it’s really unfortunate one of these teams is going home after one round.
Why you should care: Brandon Roy – a guy I put fifth on my MVP ballot – might be about to open up a can of postseason whoop-ass that makes him a household name. Kinda like Joe Johnson last year against Boston, but getting the series win to go with it.
The X-Factor: Aaron Brooks. Has been pretty ordinary over the last month, and hasn’t played big minutes because of it. Against a team with a strong backcourt, Brooks needs to stay on the court, get his assist numbers up, and knock down open threes. It’s a lot to ask of a young player who was forced to step in after Rafer Alston left town, but if he’s up to the task Brooks could make a massive difference in this series.

1. 07-08 Season Preview: The West
2. Breaking Down the First Round out East
3. NBA Playoffs on Australian TV
4. Playoff Diary 2009 - Day 1
5. Second Round Quick Picks

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